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This section  examines the  progress of  countries in reducing  poverty in  its income and non-

income dimensions and in improving the welfare of their people. Evidence confirms that expanding economic opportunities for poor people—through pro-poor growth policies—raises their incomes. The key to expanding their economic opportunities is to help them build up their assets. Human capabilities such as health and education are of intrinsic value and also have powerful effects on material well-being. Broad access to such basic infrastructure as clean water and adequate sanitation is also important to the material prospects of poor people. And a range of public interventions, such as old-age pensions and unemployment insurance, can reduce their vulnerabilities.

     The challenge for governments: formidable. The tables in this section track the progress of countries in reducing poverty and improving human capital. The expanded table on poverty (table 2.5) shows the poverty levels prevailing in countries and the longer term trends for regional and income groups. Other tables provide information on population size and growth, labor force participation, and employment by economic activity. Information is also available on the vulnerabilities in populations and government efforts to alleviate those vulnerabilities. The tables also provide information on improvements in education and health and some clues to remaining and emerging challenges. Together, the tables identify a country’s accomplishments and the tasks that still lie ahead.

The third Millennium Development Goal: Promote gender equality and empower women
     Gender issues are highly relevant to achieving all the Millennium Development Goals, from reducing poverty and hunger to protecting the environment. Because the Goals are mutually reinforcing, progress toward gender equality will advance other Goals, while success in achieving other Goals will positively affect gender equality. The target for the third Goal is to achieve gender parity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005 but no later than 2015, and in tertiary education by 2015. The indicator for monitoring progress toward this target is the ratio of female to male gross enrollment rates in primary, secondary, and tertiary education.

     What do the statistics tell us about gender and equality? The 2005 milestone year for this goal is already upon us, so we need to map countries’ progress. But a three-year delay in the production of education statistics and a lack of baseline and recent data in many countries make it impossible to assess with certainty how many countries will have achieved gender equality in education. The most recent data refer to the school period 2002/03. So conclusions about where countries stand in 2005 are based on the progress between 1990 and 2002 and on hypotheses of what would happen if progress continued at the same rate.

     The data show that the prospects for achieving gender equality in education vary considerably between educational levels and regions. There has been more progress in gender equality in primary school enrollments than in secondary and tertiary enrollments (figure 2a). Still, more than a third of developing countries will not achieve gender parity in primary school enrollments this year, and most of them risk not meeting the target in 2015 if they do not take immediate action to increase girls’ school attendance. The risk is greatest for Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, the regions reporting the slowest progress in closing the gender gap in primary schooling.  
   

2a
Progress toward gender parity in primary, secondary, and tertiary education is uneven across regions
    
Share of countries in each regions, around 2002(%)
    
          

Source: UNESCO and World Bank staff estimates.

 
    Fewer than 30 percent of developing countries have made enough progress in the last 15 years to achieve gender parity in secondary enrollments by 2005, and only 40 percent are expected to achieve this target by 2015 without stronger efforts to increase boys’ and girls’ enrollment in secondary education (figure 2b). Countries in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are seriously off track. And on current trends only 9 percent of developing countries are making enough progress to achieve gender equality in tertiary education by 2015.
 
2b
Achieving equal access to education for boys and girls leads to progress toward the goal
    

Source: UNESCO.

 
    Even though the first target for the third Millennium Development Goal has not been met globally, in the two regions with the deepest educational inequality an impressive number of countries have achieved it for primary education. In Sub-Saharan Africa they include Botswana, Mauritius, Namibia, Seychelles, Tanzania, and Uganda, and in South Asia, Sri Lanka. Several other countries are working to increase intake rates to make school accessible to previously unenrolled populations. But a lack of recent data on enrollments makes it difficult to monitor whether these actions are working.

    Equally difficult is to assess accurately where individual countries stand in relation to the target, because measuring the dynamics of education and gender is highly complex. Several technical and conceptual factors are responsible for this. First, the data for gender equality in education come from two sources: enrollment data from school censuses reported by education ministries and national agencies, and estimates of the school age population based commonly on population censuses and population estimates and projections. The reliability of enrollment data collected through school censuses is suspect in some countries because of over reporting, perhaps linked to financial  incentives or other factors. And the lack of reliable population estimates biases enrollment rates, with the extent and direction of the bias unclear (box 2c).
 
2c 
Population estimates and enrollment rates

     Population estimates are generally based on extrapolations from the most recent census—and are the product of demographic modeling. Extrapolations are uncertain because the present demographic situation is not known perfectly, and future trends of births, deaths, and net migration, even in the very short term, are subject to unpredictable influences.
    Errors in projecting population totals are generally accompanied by errors in the sizes of particular age groups. Projections of younger and older age groups tend to be unreliable because of age-heaping and underenumeration of children, particularly of girls and women in countries where gender inequality remains pervasive.
    How does this affect enrollment rates? Used as a denominator, population estimates bias enrollment rates, with the extent and direction of the bias often unknown. Efforts are made to adjust for the bias, but as noted above, models may miss important demographic events. Three other conceptual and technical issues relating to population that affect enrollment rates, especially their international comparability, are de facto versus de jure enumeration, completeness of coverage, and availability and recency of population data.

     
 

 
    Second, the indicator is only an approximation of gender differences in school enrollment among school-age children. As such, it can overestimate or underestimate the extent of gender inequalities, but the size of the error is difficult to assess. Two factors, in particular, affect the accuracy of the ratio of female to male gross enrollment rates as a measure of gender inequality:

Underreporting of private education by officials underestimates enrollment rates. This may affect the ratio of girls to boys enrolled in school if girls and boys have different probabilities of attending a private school. A recent study in Pakistan suggests that this may be the case in countries where the determinants of school attendance differ for girls and boys (Alderman, Orazem, and Paterno 2001).

Repetition rates are generally higher for boys than for girls. A high pattern of male repetition is likely to underestimate actual progress in gender parity.

    Third, the indicator does not reflect how many of the girls and boys who should be in school are actually attending school. Improvements in the gender ratio can result from an increase in girls’ school attendance or a decrease in boys’. In Cambodia, for example, the ratio of girls to boys in secondary school increased from 0.43 in 1990 to 0.60 in 2001. The improvement was the result not of an increase in girls’ gross enrollment—it fell from 19 percent to 17 percent—but of a marked decrease in boy’s enrollment, which fell from 45 percent to 27 percent.

    This analysis demonstrates the urgency to take action on two fronts as countries endeavor to achieve this target by 2015.

What needs to be done
     Promoting gender equality in education requires addressing the conditions that prevent girls and boys from attending school. Evidence shows that scholarships, lower fees, and subsidies in the form of food and cash transfers conditional on school attendance increase girls’ and boys’ enrollment rates. They also reduce the probability of dropping out of school and close gender gaps in school attainment. In countries where girls are less likely than boys to attend school, these subsidies have a larger effect on girls’ attendance than on boys’, even when girls are not targeted. Subsidies are even more effective in reducing gender disparities in schooling when they are directed to girls. For example, the Female Secondary School Assistance Program in Bangladesh paid tuition and stipends directly into a national bank for all girls attending school for at least 75 percent of the school year. An assessment of the pilot phase shows that girls’ secondary enrollment in the program area rose from 27 percent to 44 percent in five years—more than double the national average increase (World Bank 2001).

    Equally important is the need for countries to implement standardized concepts and methodologies of data collection. This is likely to place a stress on poor countries with weak administrative systems. Generally, statistical capacity is low in low-income countries, but several low-income countries have sustainable statistical capacity, including Albania, Armenia, India, Nicaragua, and Senegal (figure 2d).

 
2d
Sustainable statistical capacity is possible in low-income countries
    

Source: World Bank.

 

 
Building capacity for monitoring progress
     Countries acknowledge the role of reliable and timely data, both for analyzing, evaluating, and monitoring the effectiveness of current and longer term policies and for reporting to the international development community on country progress on international initiatives such as the Millennium Development Goals. A sophisticated international statistical system has been developed over the years by the international community. This system relies considerably on data originated in national statistical systems, many of which are institutionally weak and undervalued.

    Managing for results and monitoring the Millennium Development Goals generate demand that may result in trapping these systems in a vicious spiral of underperformance, domestic underfunding, and conflicting donor agendas. An effective and efficient national statistical system, providing the data needed to support better policies and to monitor progress, needs to be put in place before further demands are made by the international community.
        
2e

Data initiative

Key gender performance indicators

     The third Millennium Development Goal recognizes that promoting gender equality and empowering women involves more than gender parity in education enrollments. Three additional indicators are proposed to obtain a more rounded assessment:
    • Ratio of literate women to men 15 to 24 years old.
    • Share of women in wage employment in the nonagricultural sector.
    • Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments.
    No targets were set for these indicators, and progress has been slow, especially in women’s participation in nonagricultural employment and in parliament (table 1.5).

    All the Goal 3 indicators still fail to capture many important dimensions of gender equality and women’s empowerment. Working women have less social protection and fewer employment rights than do men. In some countries as many as 40 percent of women have been victims of physical violence by an intimate partner. More than 500,000 women die each year in pregnancy and childbirth. And rates of HIV/AIDS infection among women are rapidly increasing. To eliminate other gender inequalities in society, women must enjoy equal rights with men, equal economic opportunities, use of productive assets, freedom from domestic drudgery, equal representation in decision making bodies (including those at the local level), and freedom from threats of violence and coercion (UN Millennium Project 2005).

    There is, therefore, strong support in the international development community for supplementing the four indicators. The UN Millennium Project Task Force on Education and Gender Equality identified seven strategic priorities for empowering women and redressing gender differences and proposed 12 indicators to monitor progress (see table).

    Measuring and monitoring these proposed indicators will pose an additional challenge for both countries and the specialized UN agencies. Countries need to develop capacity within line ministries to collect and analyze the recommended data and to set up or expand coordination mechanisms across ministries. UN specialized agencies need to work with bilateral and multilateral partners to develop improved methodologies and systems for the national production of these statistics.

           
Proposed indicators to monitor progress in achieving the third Millennium Development Goal
 
Goal and proposed indicators Data source
Ensure universal primary education and strengthen opportunities for post primary education

• Ratio of female to male gross enrollment rates in primary, secondary, and tertiary education*

• Ratio of female to male completion rates in primary, secondary, and tertiary education
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
Guarantee sexual and reproductive health and rights

• Proportion of contraceptive demand satisfied

• Adolescent fertility rate
Specialized household surveys —Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys—and United Nations Population Fund
Invest in infrastructure to reduce women’s and girls’ time burden

• Hours per day (or year) women and men spend fetching water and collecting fuel
Time-use surveys and certain household surveys such as Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) surveys
Guarantee women’s and girls’ property rights and inheritance

• Land ownership by male, female, and jointly held

• Housing title, disaggregated by male, female, and jointly held
Land registry and certain household surveys such as LSMS 

UN-HABITAT project, housing titles registry, and certain household surveys such as LSMS
Eliminate gender inequality in employment

• Share of women in employment, both wage and self-employed, by type

• Gender gaps in earnings in wage and self-employment
International Labour Organization (ILO), Women in Informal Employment: Globalizing and Organizing (WIEGO), and labor force and household surveys such as LSMS 

ILO, labor force surveys, and certain household surveys
Increase women’s share of seats in national parliaments and local government bodies

• Percentage of seats held by women in national parliament*

• Percentage of seats held by women in local government bodies
Inter-Parliamentary Union
Combat violence against women

• Prevalence of domestic violence
United Cities and Local Governments, DHS, World Health Organization multicountry study on women’s health and domestic violence, and other national surveys with similar methodologies
* Current Millennium Development Goal indicators.
Source: UN Millennium Project 2005.
 
         

 
 
Progress toward gender parity in primary, secondary, and tertiary education is uneven across regions 
East Asia & Pacific
Europe & Central Asia
Latin America & Caribbean
Middle East & North Africa
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa

               

Achieving equal access to education for boys and girls leads to progress toward the goal 

           
Population estimates and enrollment rates
             
Sustainable statistical capacity is possible in low-income countries 

                  
Key gender performance indicators